Money Monday: Real Estate Bubble

Hey people, if you haven’t noticed, we are experiencing a housing bubble: skyrocketing rents, zero inventory, and astronomical offers in terms of both volume and price. This is not the time to buy. Back away, people. Back away! I’m completely flabbergasted at how many people have decided that THIS is the time to buy. Very odd. Don’t get me wrong, I’m in the hunt myself, but I’m not paying up for a shack. I’d rather stick to our 1-bedroom, thank you very much. I have zero pressure to buy.

A coworker said that NOW is the time to buy into a new condo development because the price just keeps going up and up. And I’m like, dude, that is not sustainable. Use your brain! I asked him what the monthly HOAs are and he said $450. What a joke. Seriously, these people deserve to go into foreclosure for making such dumb mistakes.

Let’s do the math with an example.

37 years old – because that’s how old I am

$700,000 purchase price for a nice 2-bedroom condo in San Francisco

25% down – because these days that’s how much you have to put down to compete

30 year loan at a 3.5% interest rate – which is generous for rates right now

Mortgage + 1.14% property taxes + $450 HOAs = $3,425 housing expense per month – that doesn’t even include electricity, water, garbage, cable

Imagine still paying $3,425 at 65 years old? Because I’d still have another 2 more years to go. I don’t want to be coughing up that much money in my twilight years. I want to be on the beach in Central America drinking raw coconut water and eating shrimp.

I have this ongoing debate with my mom because she is a firm believer in owning a home. She’s one of those old school types. I questioned why should we be shackled to such a high mortgage 30 years from now when we can easily rent a 2-bedroom in a podunk suburb for peanuts. She countered that once your home’s paid off, the only expenses left are utilities and property taxes (which I should add are insane if you live in San Francisco). I don’t know. I’m still not sold on this home ownership dream. But since my parents are, it’s good to know we can always move in with mom and dad!

Livin La Vida Loca

We are keeping it real, living in the Mission this week on our quest to try out different neighborhoods before we buy. We rented our apartment in Nob Hill to a nice British gentleman who is in SF for work. Last time we tried the Potrero neighborhood, which we loved. This time, we opted for the Mission. We are a block away from the hospital on the corner of Hampshire and 23rd. I have to admit, I didn’t have very high expectations, but I am really loving it here. Sure this ‘hood is a bit grittier, but it’s got character. I haven’t felt unsafe. Lots of people always on the bus and walking around. I feel like I’m living in Mexico City!

The 9L bus whisks me to and from work so quickly, I’ve been shocked. This is my first experience dealing with a timely Muni bus! Can’t beat that!!

The apartment we’re staying in is small, but lovely and fine for us which makes me think we really don’t need a lot of space. Dean and I are so low maintenance. If the 2 of us can live in this treehouse for a week, then a reasonably-priced, minimalist home should be enough. We always joke that people buy big homes purely to put more shit in it.

What’s great about the couple renting to us is that they are doing exactly what I aspire to do. They own a 2-unit building, live upstairs, and rent the downstairs unit. The rent for the downstairs unit covers their mortgage. Score! In addition to the 2-unit building, they pounced on this tiny loft next door which they had used for family and friends visiting from out of town. Now that Airbnb has blown up, they’ve been renting it out to RAVE reviews. The rental is inexpensive. It’s nice and clean. And they’re the nicest hosts ever. So they’ve got a great little side business going.

 

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I Found Your New Apartment

Is anyone looking for an apartment in the city? Because I while away a portion of my free time assessing apartment and home prices, I found this 2-bedroom, 2-bath in Potrero Flats for $2700 on Craigslist. What a deal, right?! Open house starts tomorrow.

If any of you readers pounces on this, I expect a finder’s fee!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since we’re on the topic, I am totally torn on whether or not to sell my condo. I need to put together a decision matrix! There are pros and cons to both options. If I could extract the equity from our condo, the world is our oyster in terms of buying a new place. But with that money un-touchable, we are constrained in our choices. I need to win the lottery.

Chasing the Low Refi Rates

I am trying to refi my place. My last refi was unsuccessful because the appraisal was low which put me underwater, which was upsetting because I don’t believe the comps supported such a poor price. So I am at it again. An appraiser came today and I’m very curious what his thoughts are. As a serial refinancer, my appraisals have spanned $400k through $600k. I swear if this doesn’t go through I’m going to sell my place and wouldn’t be surprised if I pulled in $550k which is $100k over what I paid for it. I’ve locked in a 3.5% rate for 20 years.

I constantly go back and forth on whether or not to sell my place.

I always think that if I hold on for 20 years when it’s completely paid off that we’ll get an extra $1,500 / month which is net of property taxes, HOAs, utilities, bills, maintenance, etc. What a nice extra cushion for us to retire on. But holding on means being a landlord which takes time, and time is money! Also I seem to clash with the owners on how to spend our reserves. I think we need to have our backyard completely landscaped, but at least one of the other owners disagrees. It is such an eyesore, no one wants to spend time back there, yet it has so much potential. Sigh.

And if I sell? Freedom! And a big chunk of cash back in our pockets.

I’m very confused.

Check out this graphic from my real estate agent. SF condo prices. Can I say…BUBBLE!

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